Will There Be a Hole in One? How Often Aces Happen on Tour
Two seasons of hole-by-hole PGA TOUR scoring show aces are rarer at event level than most bettors assume, and field size changes the fair price sharply.
Every week a major bookmaker offers a simple question: will anyone make a hole in one? Readers often ask about it when they visit my this week's golf tips page, so I went to the scorecards to find out. The study covers 81 individual stroke-play events across the 2025 season and the 2026 season to September, with 30,712 complete rounds and 552,816 holes.
The headline answer is that an ace landed in 42.0% of events, which gives fair odds of 2.38 for 'yes' before any margin. Across the sample there were 46 aces from 125,927 par-3 tee shots, one for every 2,738 attempts. On its own that tells you 'no' is the slightly more likely outcome. The more useful finding is how much that changes depending on the size of the field.
1Most events finish without a single ace
This chart shows how many aces each event produced. The tallest bar is 'none' at 58.0%, ahead of exactly one at 28.4%, two at 12.3% and three or more at just 1.2%. The pattern drops away quickly, and when an ace does come, it usually comes alone.
For a bettor, the shape matters as much as the headline. A market that implies an ace is more likely than not runs against what the records show. Some bookmakers also offer 'two or more' specials, and those land far less often than a casual punter would guess.
View the data: holes in one per event
| Share of 81 events | |
|---|---|
| None | 58.0% |
| One | 28.4% |
| Two | 12.3% |
| Three or more | 1.2% |
What I take from it is simple. 'Yes' is a slight underdog on an average week, so I'm only interested at a price comfortably above 2.38. Anything shorter means paying for excitement rather than probability.
2Full fields produce aces far more often than limited fields
This is where the market gets interesting. In full-field events of 120 or more players, 47.3% of the 55 events had at least one ace, a fair price of 2.11. In limited-field events under 100 players, only 32.0% of the 25 events did, a fair price of 3.12. The 'no' side moves the opposite way, from 1.90 in full fields to 1.47 in limited ones.
The reason is volume, not magic. A full-field event averaged 1,800 par-3 tee shots against 1,016 for a limited field, so there are many more chances at the flag. Each tee shot is a small lottery ticket, and the full fields simply buy more of them.
| Event type | Events | Par-3 tee shots per event | At least one ace | Fair odds: yes | Fair odds: no |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full field (120+ players) | 55 | 1,800 | 47.3% | 2.11 | 1.90 |
| Limited field (under 100) | 25 | 1,016 | 32.0% | 3.12 | 1.47 |
| All events | 81 | 1,555 | 42.0% | 2.38 | 1.72 |
1 event with 100-119 players is included in All events only.
This is the column I would check first. If a bookmaker prices every event the same, the limited-field weeks are where 'no' carries more value. The full-field weeks bring 'yes' much closer to an even-money proposition.
3Weekend rounds convert par-3s into aces slightly more often
The chart measures aces per 10,000 par-3 tee shots in each round. The rate was 3.5 in round 1 and rose to 4.8 in round 4, with 11 aces in final rounds. Round 2 was the quietest by rate, even though it produced as many aces as Sunday, because the whole field is still playing before the cut and those aces are spread across far more swings.
I read this through course set-up rather than nerve. Tournament committees often tuck weekend pins into spots that feed the ball towards the hole, or move tees forward on a short par 3 to invite drama. The players left at the weekend are also the ones striking it best that week.
View the data: aces per 10,000 par-3 tee shots
| By round | |
|---|---|
| Round 1 (14 aces) | 3.5 |
| Round 2 (11 aces) | 2.8 |
| Round 3 (10 aces) | 4.2 |
| Round 4 (11 aces) | 4.8 |
One caution applies to everything in this study. Two seasons and 81 events is a modest base for event-level percentages, and each week's par-3 lengths and pin sheet matter more than any average I can give you. Treat these figures as a starting point to adjust from, not a finished price.
Betting notes
- Start from 2.38. On an average PGA TOUR week, 42.0% of events produced an ace, so I treat 2.38 as the fair line for 'yes'. I want a meaningful premium above that before I'd consider backing it.
- Check the field size. Full fields produced an ace in 47.3% of events, compared with 32.0% for limited fields. That's a fair-odds gap between 2.11 and 3.12, so a bookmaker pricing the two alike is probably wrong on one of them.
- Read the par-3s. Look at par-3 yardages and likely pin positions before betting. Short holes and generous weekend pins are where the round 4 rate of 4.8 per 10,000 tee shots comes from.
Quick answers
How often is there a hole in one at a PGA TOUR event?
In this sample of 81 events, at least one ace was made in 42.0% of them. The other 58.0% finished without one.
What are fair odds for 'hole in one: yes' in golf?
Across all events, the fair price with no margin is 2.38. It drops to 2.11 in full-field events and lengthens to 3.12 in limited fields under 100 players.
How rare is a hole in one on tour per tee shot?
There were 46 aces from 125,927 par-3 tee shots, which is one ace per 2,738 attempts. No par-4 aces were recorded in the sample.
I'm Julien Favre, based in Geneva, and I write the golf tips at bettips.vip โ reading course fit and form over the world ranking.
All of Julien Favre's work โ
