T20 First Over Runs: Averages, Lines and Wicket Chances by League
Data from 6,521 men's T20 matches shows the first over averages 6.5 runs, unders lead the 6.5 line, and chasing sides lose early wickets more often.
The first over of a T20 innings is one of the most popular specials, and one where instinct often misleads. Bettors picture a boundary off the opening ball, but 6,521 men's matches tell a quieter story. I wanted three answers: how many runs the over actually yields, how often the standard lines go over, and how often a wicket falls.
The headline is that across 13,042 innings the first over averaged 6.5 runs, yet it beat a 6.5 line only 44.1% of the time. A wicket fell in 20.4% of innings, and chasing sides lost one more often than setters. These numbers now sit underneath every first-over view on my cricket betting predictions page, alongside the pitch and bowler read I make for each game.
1MLC leads first-over scoring while BPL sits lowest
This chart ranks twelve competitions by average first-over runs. MLC tops it at 7.1 runs, with the Super Smash on 7.0 and the T20 Blast on 6.8. The BPL is at the bottom on 5.9, with the ILT20 just above it on 6.1.
The spread from top to bottom is narrower than many people assume. But in a market priced around a half-run line, a gap of this size matters.
View the data: average runs in the first over
| Per innings, both innings, all seasons | |
|---|---|
| MLC | 7.1 runs |
| Super Smash | 7 runs |
| T20 Blast | 6.8 runs |
| PSL | 6.7 runs |
| LPL | 6.7 runs |
| IPL | 6.4 runs |
| T20I | 6.4 runs |
| BBL | 6.3 runs |
| CPL | 6.2 runs |
| SA20 | 6.2 runs |
| ILT20 | 6.1 runs |
| BPL | 5.9 runs |
My reading is structural. The leagues near the top tend to be played on true surfaces where the new ball comes on to the bat. The BPL sits low because slow, low pitches give openers little pace to work with, and captains there are comfortable opening with spin.
2Over 6.5 lands less than half the time in most leagues
The table turns averages into what bettors actually trade: the share of innings beating 5.5, 6.5 and 7.5. Overall, 5.5 went over in 54.9% of innings, 6.5 in 44.1% and 7.5 in 35.2%. Only the Super Smash clears 6.5 more often than not, at 51.4%, while the BPL beats it in just 37.0%.
An average of 6.5 still produces mostly unders because of the shape of the distribution. 25.5% of first overs went for 3 runs or fewer and 20.8% went for 10 or more. A handful of big overs drags the mean up, while the typical over is a tidy one.
| Competition | Innings | Avg runs | Over 5.5 | Over 6.5 | Over 7.5 | Wicket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLC | 216 | 7.1 | 58.8% | 44.9% | 37.5% | 21.3% |
| Super Smash | 506 | 7.0 | 61.5% | 51.4% | 41.9% | 20.6% |
| T20 Blast | 3,062 | 6.8 | 59.2% | 47.7% | 37.9% | 21.3% |
| PSL | 708 | 6.7 | 55.9% | 46.9% | 38.0% | 21.2% |
| LPL | 280 | 6.7 | 56.8% | 45.0% | 37.1% | 22.5% |
| IPL | 2,468 | 6.4 | 53.9% | 43.0% | 34.4% | 18.6% |
| T20I | 2,180 | 6.4 | 53.9% | 43.9% | 35.2% | 20.9% |
| BBL | 1,302 | 6.3 | 55.1% | 42.6% | 32.5% | 20.0% |
| CPL | 870 | 6.2 | 50.7% | 40.2% | 32.0% | 19.7% |
| SA20 | 246 | 6.2 | 50.4% | 40.2% | 31.7% | 17.1% |
| ILT20 | 266 | 6.1 | 51.1% | 42.9% | 34.2% | 19.9% |
| BPL | 938 | 5.9 | 45.4% | 37.0% | 30.0% | 21.7% |
Sample size matters here. The T20 Blast's 47.7% rests on 3,062 innings and the IPL's 43.0% on 2,468, so I trust those far more than MLC's figure from 216 innings or the SA20's from 246.
3First-over scoring has climbed to its highest recent level
The yearly line shows a market that has shifted over time. From 2010 to 2016 the first over averaged 6.0 runs. From 2024 onwards it is 6.9, and 2026 so far sits at 7.4, the highest of any year since 2010.
There was an earlier step up, with 2018 reaching 6.8, before a long plateau around 6.4. The latest rise looks steeper and more sustained than that earlier bump.
2026 is a part-season. Every year has at least 210 innings.
View the data: first-over scoring by year
| Avg first-over runs | |
|---|---|
| 2010 | 6.1 runs |
| 2011 | 6.1 runs |
| 2012 | 5.9 runs |
| 2013 | 5.7 runs |
| 2014 | 6.2 runs |
| 2015 | 6 runs |
| 2016 | 6 runs |
| 2017 | 6.6 runs |
| 2018 | 6.8 runs |
| 2019 | 6.5 runs |
| 2020 | 6.4 runs |
| 2021 | 6.4 runs |
| 2022 | 6.4 runs |
| 2023 | 6.6 runs |
| 2024 | 6.4 runs |
| 2025 | 6.9 runs |
| 2026 | 7.4 runs |
This is the main caveat of the whole study. All-season averages understate the current scoring rate, 2026 is only a part-season, and no past frequency here promises anything about the next match. A league average is where my thinking starts, not where the line should be, because the opening bowler, the pitch and the field rules still decide each individual over.
4Chasing sides lose first-over wickets more often than setters
The dumbbell compares wicket rates batting first and chasing. Overall, chasers lost a first-over wicket in 22.4% of innings against 18.4% for teams setting a target, and in almost every league the chasing dot sits to the right. The LPL shows the widest gap, 18.6% setting against 26.4% chasing, and the BPL's chasing figure of 24.5% also stands out.
View the data: wicket in the first over: setting vs chasing
| Batting first | Chasing | |
|---|---|---|
| IPL (1,234 innings each) | 16.0% | 21.2% |
| BBL (651 innings each) | 18.1% | 22.0% |
| T20 Blast (1,531 innings each) | 19.7% | 22.9% |
| PSL (354 innings each) | 20.9% | 21.5% |
| CPL (435 innings each) | 18.9% | 20.5% |
| BPL (469 innings each) | 19.0% | 24.5% |
| Super Smash (253 innings each) | 19.0% | 22.1% |
| SA20 (123 innings each) | 18.7% | 15.4% |
| ILT20 (133 innings each) | 16.5% | 23.3% |
| MLC (108 innings each) | 20.4% | 22.2% |
| LPL (140 innings each) | 18.6% | 26.4% |
| T20I (1,090 innings each) | 18.0% | 23.8% |
I see two forces at work. Chasers score faster, at 6.7 runs on average against 6.2 for setters, and faster scoring means more risk. The second innings is also often played under lights, where the new ball can move more at some grounds. The SA20 is the lone exception, but on 123 innings each I would not build anything on it.
Betting notes
- Start below the average. A 6.5 line went over in only 44.1% of all innings. Treat the 6.5 average as a mean inflated by big overs, not as a coin-flip line.
- Adjust for league and era. Lean higher in the Super Smash and T20 Blast and lower in the BPL. Then nudge upwards for recent seasons, given the 6.9-run average from 2024 onwards.
- Price chasing wickets separately. The fair price for a first-over wicket is 4.90 overall, but chasers lose one in 22.4% of innings. A quote that ignores which side is batting may be off.
Quick answers
How many runs are scored in the first over of a T20?
Across 13,042 men's T20 innings, the first over averaged 6.5 runs. By league, it ranges from 7.1 in MLC to 5.9 in the BPL.
How often does a wicket fall in the first over of a T20 match?
A wicket falls in 20.4% of innings, which equates to a fair price of 4.90 before any bookmaker margin. Chasing sides lose one more often, at 22.4%.
Does the first over in the IPL usually go over 6.5 runs?
No. Across 2,468 IPL innings, the first over beat 6.5 runs in 43.0% of cases, and the IPL first-over wicket rate is 18.6%.
I'm Kenji Nakamura, based in Tokyo, and I write all the cricket betting tips at bettips.vip โ reading the pitch as closely as the form.
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