How Often Do F1 Teams Finish 1-2? Lockouts, Eras and Team-Mates
A team 1-2 looks like the natural sequel to a dominant qualifying session. The record since 1980 says it is rarer, and more era-dependent, than the market often assumes.
How often does one Formula 1 team take first and second, and how much does a front-row lockout really tell you? I went through 835 races from 1980 to 2026 to round 15, each with a classified winner and runner-up, to find out.
The headline: a team 1-2 happened in 28.7% of those races, and a front-row lockout became a 1-2 only 38.4% of the time. Before you open this weekend's F1 tips, it helps to know that even the best-looking grid is closer to a coin flip than a formality. The charts below show where that base rate climbs and where it collapses.
1One-two rates swing hard with each era's dominant car
This line tracks the share of races each season where one team took P1 and P2, alongside the share where a team simply put two cars on the podium. The peak in the last 40 years was 1988 at 68.8%, while plenty of seasons sit down near single figures. The hybrid era from 2014-21 ran at 36.2% across 160 races, the ground-effect years from 2022-25 dropped to 29.3% across 92, and 2026 sits at 20.0% with 3 one-twos from 15 races.
The main caveat applies to every chart here. These rates are driven by how dominant one car is, so they move a lot from season to season, and the 2026 figure comes from a small, unfinished sample.
2026 covers rounds 1-15.
View the data: team 1-2 finishes, season by season
| 1-2 finish | Two cars on podium | |
|---|---|---|
| 1987 | 37.5% | 56.2% |
| 1988 | 68.8% | 75.0% |
| 1989 | 31.2% | 50.0% |
| 1990 | 18.8% | 62.5% |
| 1991 | 31.2% | 56.2% |
| 1992 | 37.5% | 75.0% |
| 1993 | 6.2% | 50.0% |
| 1994 | 6.2% | 18.8% |
| 1995 | 11.8% | 47.1% |
| 1996 | 37.5% | 43.8% |
| 1997 | 5.9% | 52.9% |
| 1998 | 50.0% | 87.5% |
| 1999 | 37.5% | 56.2% |
| 2000 | 41.2% | 76.5% |
| 2001 | 17.6% | 52.9% |
| 2002 | 58.8% | 76.5% |
| 2003 | 12.5% | 56.2% |
| 2004 | 44.4% | 61.1% |
| 2005 | 10.5% | 47.4% |
| 2006 | 16.7% | 50.0% |
| 2007 | 47.1% | 76.5% |
| 2008 | 22.2% | 38.9% |
| 2009 | 47.1% | 52.9% |
| 2010 | 47.4% | 84.2% |
| 2011 | 15.8% | 57.9% |
| 2012 | 5.0% | 40.0% |
| 2013 | 21.1% | 57.9% |
| 2014 | 57.9% | 84.2% |
| 2015 | 63.2% | 89.5% |
| 2016 | 42.9% | 76.2% |
| 2017 | 30.0% | 70.0% |
| 2018 | 19.0% | 52.4% |
| 2019 | 47.6% | 76.2% |
| 2020 | 29.4% | 70.6% |
| 2021 | 4.5% | 59.1% |
| 2022 | 31.8% | 68.2% |
| 2023 | 27.3% | 54.5% |
| 2024 | 29.2% | 58.3% |
| 2025 | 29.2% | 62.5% |
| 2026 | 20.0% | 53.3% |
The broader 'two cars on the podium' line is steadier. It covered 58.9% of all races, and 67.0% of 267 races since 2014. For me, that gap is where value hides: a double podium happens about twice as often as a 1-2, so the two markets should never be priced as near-equivalents.
2The winner's team-mate finishes far more reliably than before
This stacked chart answers a simple question: when a driver wins, where does the team-mate end up? In the 1980s the team-mate was outside the top 10 or unclassified in 41.2% of races, which was a reliability lottery as much as a pace question.
Modern cars changed that. In 2014-21 the team-mate finished second in 36.2% of races, third in 20.0% and outside the top 10 or unclassified in only 16.2%. In 2022-25 the team-mate was second in 29.3% of races but landed in P4-10 in 38.0%.
View the data: where the race winner's team-mate finished
| P2 (1-2) | P3 | P4-10 | P11+ or not classified | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1980s | 26.8% | 12.4% | 19.6% | 41.2% |
| 1990s | 24.1% | 17.3% | 19.8% | 38.9% |
| 2000s | 32.0% | 15.1% | 29.1% | 23.8% |
| 2010-13 | 22.1% | 18.2% | 33.8% | 26.0% |
| 2014-21 | 36.2% | 20.0% | 27.5% | 16.2% |
| 2022-25 | 29.3% | 14.1% | 38.0% | 18.5% |
| 2026 | 20.0% | 13.3% | 33.3% | 33.3% |
That last figure is the one I lean on. In tighter eras the team-mate of the winner usually scores, but often gets beaten to second by a rival car. A points finish for that driver is a far more natural outcome than a P2.
3A front-row lockout converts to a 1-2 less than half the time
Each row compares the 1-2 rate in all races with the rate after one team filled the front row. Across 318 lockouts since 1980, 38.4% became a 1-2. That is a clear uplift on the base rate, but it still means most lockouts end with someone else splitting the pair.
The era matters enormously. In 2014-21 a lockout became a 1-2 in 54.1% of 85 cases, against 36.2% across all races, which was the one period where the front row was genuinely predictive. In 2022-25 the figure was 35.3% from only 17 cases, and the range bar on that row is wide.
Range bars = 95% range on the lockout rate; lockout samples are small in some eras. 2026 omitted (too few lockouts).
View the data: front-row lockout: how often it becomes a 1-2
| All races | After a front-row lockout | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1980s (155 races / 59 lockouts) | 26.5% | 37.3% | ยฑ12.3 |
| 1990s (162 races / 74 lockouts) | 24.1% | 25.7% | ยฑ10 |
| 2000s (174 races / 48 lockouts) | 31.6% | 41.7% | ยฑ13.9 |
| 2010-13 (77 races / 31 lockouts) | 22.1% | 22.6% | ยฑ14.7 |
| 2014-21 (160 races / 85 lockouts) | 36.2% | 54.1% | ยฑ10.6 |
| 2022-25 (92 races / 17 lockouts) | 29.3% | 35.3% | ยฑ22.7 |
I treat a lockout as information about qualifying pace, not race pace. Tyre degradation, the first-lap run to turn one and pit-wall strategy all get a vote, and outside a truly dominant era the grid tells you less than the price implies.
4Mercedes owns the 1-2 tally since 2010
Counting 1-2 finishes from 2010 to 2026 to round 15, Mercedes leads with 58, ahead of Red Bull with 27, McLaren with 12 and Ferrari with 8. Most of the Mercedes total comes from the hybrid years, when a lockout was almost a team habit.
View the data: most 1-2 finishes since 2010
| Number of 1-2 finishes, 2010-2026 to round 15 | |
|---|---|
| Mercedes | 58 races |
| Red Bull | 27 races |
| McLaren | 12 races |
| Ferrari | 8 races |
The lesson is not to back a badge. These totals reflect what the machinery could do in a given rules cycle, and team history carries little weight once the package underneath changes.
Betting notes
- Start from the base rate. Across all races since 1980 the 1-2 rate of 28.7% corresponds to fair odds of 3.48 before the grid is known. Use that as your anchor, then adjust for how dominant the leading car looks.
- Discount lockouts in close eras. A lockout converted 54.1% of the time in 2014-21 but only 35.3% in 2022-25. Unless one car is clearly quicker on race pace, do not price a front-row lockout as a near-certain double.
- Prefer team-mate points markets. In 2022-25 the winner's team-mate finished P4-10 in 38.0% of races and second in 29.3%. A top-ten or points line for that driver often fits the data better than a 1-2 bet.
Quick answers
How often does one F1 team finish first and second?
Across 835 races from 1980 to 2026 to round 15, one team finished 1-2 in 28.7% of races. The rate depends heavily on the era, from 36.2% in 2014-21 to 20.0% so far in 2026.
Does a front-row lockout usually lead to a 1-2 finish?
Not usually. Since 1980, 38.4% of 318 front-row lockouts became a 1-2, although the figure rose to 54.1% in the dominant 2014-21 era.
Which team has the most 1-2 finishes since 2010?
Mercedes has the most with 58, ahead of Red Bull with 27 and McLaren with 12. Most of those came when one car was clearly the fastest on the grid.
I'm Sofia Russo, based in Miami, and I write the F1 betting predictions at bettips.vip โ reading car pace, track type and strategy over the headline driver names.
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