How Big Is the Bookmaker Margin on Football? 38 Leagues Compared
I measured the bookmaker's cut on 1X2, over/under and Asian handicap prices across 38 leagues, then checked how much the best price claws back and how the cut has moved since 2000/01.
Every price you take carries a fee, and in football that fee sits quietly inside the odds as the overround. I wanted to know how large it really is, league by league and market by market, and whether shopping around changes the picture. This study covers 77,988 matches in 38 leagues, with a season trend running back to 2000/01.
The headline is that the average 1X2 margin at a major bookmaker is 6.5%, but it runs from 4.4% in the Premier League to 9.2% in Scottish League Two. Taking the best price on each outcome shrinks it sharply, and Asian handicap is the cheapest market in every group I could measure. That matters for every call on my free football predictions page, because a sound tactical read can still lose money if you overpay for it.
1The Premier League is cheapest, Scottish football dearest
This chart shows the eight cheapest and eight most expensive of the 38 leagues by average 1X2 overround at a major bookmaker. The big five sit at the bottom, led by the Premier League at 4.4%, with the Bundesliga and La Liga both at 4.7%, Serie A at 4.8% and Ligue 1 at 5%. At the other end, Scottish League Two carries 9.2%, Scottish League One 9.1%, and the Scottish Championship and National League both 8.5%.
The pattern tracks attention. Where millions of pounds and plenty of sharp opinion hit a market, the bookmaker can't hide much margin. Where fewer people are pricing a wet Tuesday in the Scottish fourth tier, the cushion grows.
8 lowest and 8 highest of 38 leagues. Margin = sum of implied probabilities minus 100%.
View the data: lowest and highest 1x2 margins by league
| Average overround at a major bookmaker, recent seasons | |
|---|---|
| Premier League | 4.4% |
| Bundesliga | 4.7% |
| La Liga | 4.7% |
| Serie A | 4.8% |
| Ligue 1 | 5.0% |
| Championship | 5.8% |
| Eredivisie | 5.8% |
| Russian Premier League | 5.8% |
| League of Ireland | 7.3% |
| Chinese Super League | 7.5% |
| Super League Greece | 7.5% |
| Romanian Liga I | 7.9% |
| National League | 8.5% |
| Scottish Championship | 8.5% |
| Scottish League One | 9.1% |
| Scottish League Two | 9.2% |
I don't read that as a reason to avoid smaller leagues. Lower scrutiny can mean softer lines, and that is often where a structural read of a side earns its keep. It does mean you need a bigger edge before the bet is worth placing, roughly twice the hurdle of the Premier League.
2Shopping for the best price nearly erases the margin
Here each league group has 2 dots: the overround at one major bookmaker, and the overround if you took the highest price on each outcome across the market. In the big five top flights the margin drops from 4.7% to 0.6%. Outside Europe the drop is even more dramatic, from 6.6% to 0.3%, across 25,762 matches.
English and Scottish lower tiers keep the most residual margin, going from 7.7% to 2.4%. Other European top flights and European second tiers both fall to 1.7%, from 6.5% and 6.8% respectively.
Best available = highest price on each outcome across bookmakers.
View the data: one bookmaker vs best price across the market
| Major bookmaker | Best available | |
|---|---|---|
| Big five top flights (12,457 matches) | 4.7% | 0.6% |
| Other European top flights (11,344 matches) | 6.5% | 1.7% |
| European second tiers (15,449 matches) | 6.8% | 1.7% |
| English & Scottish lower tiers (12,976 matches) | 7.7% | 2.4% |
| Leagues outside Europe (25,762 matches) | 6.6% | 0.3% |
The caveat I take most seriously sits here: the best-price figure assumes you can back each outcome with a different bookmaker, and that isn't always possible in practice. Even so, the gap between the 2 dots is the clearest picture I know of what loyalty to a single account costs you.
3Asian handicap carries the thinnest margin in every group
The table compares the 1X2, over/under 2.5 and Asian handicap overround at a major bookmaker. In the big five, handicap prices carry 2.9%, against 4.7% on 1X2 and 5.0% on over/under 2.5. The big five are the only group where totals are dearer than the match result.
Lower down, the ordering settles. English and Scottish lower tiers run 7.7% on 1X2, 6.4% on over/under and 4.5% on the handicap, and European second tiers show the same shape at 6.8%, 6.0% and 4.0%. Totals and handicap prices were not available outside Europe, so that row stays blank.
| League group | Matches | 1X2 | Over/Under 2.5 | Asian handicap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big five top flights | 12,457 | 4.7% | 5.0% | 2.9% |
| Other European top flights | 11,344 | 6.5% | 5.9% | 3.9% |
| European second tiers | 15,449 | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.0% |
| English & Scottish lower tiers | 12,976 | 7.7% | 6.4% | 4.5% |
| Leagues outside Europe | 25,762 | 6.6% | n/a | n/a |
Over/under and handicap prices were not available outside Europe.
This fits how I build a view anyway. If I think a side's press will suffocate a weaker opponent, the handicap often expresses that more precisely than the win, and the table says it is also cheaper to back.
4Big five margins collapsed after 2000/01, then crept back
The line shows the season-by-season 1X2 margin for the big five top flights and a set of European second tiers. The big five began at 12.4% in 2000/01, fell to 6.3% by 2010/11, and reached a low of 4.4% in 2023/24. The second tiers followed a similar path, from 13.3% to 7.1% over the first decade.
The recent end is the part I watch. The big five rose to 5.6% in 2025/26, and the second tiers climbed to 8.1%, above where they stood in 2010/11.
View the data: 1x2 margin season by season
| Big five top flights | European second tiers | |
|---|---|---|
| 2000/01 | 12.4% | 13.3% |
| 2001/02 | 11.6% | 12.6% |
| 2002/03 | 12.2% | 12.2% |
| 2003/04 | 10.7% | 11.9% |
| 2004/05 | 10.7% | 12.1% |
| 2005/06 | 9.2% | 11.6% |
| 2006/07 | 8.6% | 11.0% |
| 2007/08 | 6.7% | 9.7% |
| 2008/09 | 6.3% | 7.9% |
| 2009/10 | 6.3% | 7.2% |
| 2010/11 | 6.3% | 7.1% |
| 2011/12 | 6.2% | 6.6% |
| 2012/13 | 5.9% | 6.1% |
| 2013/14 | 5.6% | 5.7% |
| 2014/15 | 4.9% | 5.6% |
| 2015/16 | 4.6% | 5.7% |
| 2016/17 | 4.6% | 5.7% |
| 2017/18 | 4.8% | 5.7% |
| 2018/19 | 4.7% | 5.6% |
| 2019/20 | 4.8% | 6.6% |
| 2020/21 | 4.8% | 6.6% |
| 2021/22 | 4.4% | 6.4% |
| 2022/23 | 4.4% | 6.4% |
| 2023/24 | 4.4% | 6.5% |
| 2024/25 | 4.8% | 6.7% |
| 2025/26 | 5.6% | 8.1% |
One honest qualification: the time of day these prices were captured changed over the years, and opening and closing prices carry different margins, so part of any season-to-season wobble may be timing rather than pricing. The long fall is far too large to be explained that way, but I treat the latest uptick as a signal to keep checking rather than a settled fact.
Betting notes
- Price-shop every single bet. In the big five the 1X2 margin falls from 4.7% at one bookmaker to 0.6% at the best price, so holding several accounts is worth more than most tips. Compare before you click, every time.
- Prefer handicap where possible. Asian handicap is the cheapest market in each European group, at 2.9% in the big five and 4.5% in the English and Scottish lower tiers. If your read can be expressed on the handicap, use it.
- Demand more in Scotland. Scottish League Two averages 9.2% against 4.4% in the Premier League, so a thin edge simply disappears there. Only bet the lower Scottish divisions when your view is strong and well argued.
Quick answers
What is the average bookmaker margin on football 1X2 odds?
Across 77,988 recent matches in 38 leagues, the average 1X2 margin at a major bookmaker was 6.5%. It varies widely by league, from 4.4% to 9.2%.
Which football league has the lowest bookmaker margin?
The Premier League, at 4.4% on 1X2. The Bundesliga and La Liga follow at 4.7%, while Scottish League Two is the most expensive at 9.2%.
Are bookmaker margins on football lower than they used to be?
Yes, by a long way. In the big five top flights the 1X2 margin fell from 12.4% in 2000/01 to 5.6% in 2025/26, though it has risen from its 4.4% low in 2023/24.
I'm Lorenzo Bianchi, based in Monaco, and I cover the soccer predictions at bettips.vip โ built on shape, sequencing and squad depth rather than the table.
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